Should I sell my business now or wait?
How to think about timing without guessing. The four things that actually decide whether waiting pays, and the situations where waiting quietly costs you money.
General information only, not financial, legal or taxation advice. Tony Pope holds Queensland Office of Fair Trading licence 4963575.
The short version
- Timing is mostly about the state of your business, not the state of the market. Preparation moves price more reliably than any window ever does.
- Waiting only pays if you use the time. Waiting while nothing changes is just an older owner selling the same business.
- There are situations where waiting costs you, including declining energy, a deteriorating key contract, or ageing plant that will need replacing before a buyer will pay for it.
- The decision is easier once you know your number and what would move it. That is what a free appraisal is for.
Almost every owner who contacts me is asking a version of this question, and most of them are framing it the wrong way. They are asking about the market. The answer nearly always turns out to be about their business.
The market question, answered briefly
Buyer appetite in Queensland is genuinely active at the moment. There are cashed up private buyers, trade acquirers looking to consolidate, and investors wanting exposure to a state with an infrastructure pipeline running into 2032 and sustained population growth. That is a real condition and it will not last forever, because nothing does.
But here is the part that matters. The gap between a well prepared business and an unprepared one is routinely larger than the gap between a good market and an average one. If you are choosing between selling into a strong market unprepared and selling into an average market prepared, the prepared sale usually wins.
So the market is a consideration. It is not the consideration.
The four things that actually decide it
Where the trend is pointing. Buyers price the direction as much as the number. Three years of steady improvement reads completely differently to one exceptional year sitting on top of two flat ones. If your numbers are climbing, time is working for you. If they have turned, waiting is costing you and the longer you wait the more explaining you do.
How much of the business is you. This is the single largest lever on price and the slowest one to move. If the answer is "most of it", then waiting is worth real money, provided you actually use the time to change the answer. Hiring a second in command, documenting the process, moving the key relationships across. That work takes a year or two and it shows up directly in the multiple.
What is sitting in front of you. A key contract due for renewal in eight months is a different conversation depending on which side of the renewal you sell. Ageing plant that a buyer can see will need replacing gets priced in, so replacing it yourself or selling before it becomes obvious are both better than the middle. A lease with two years left and no option is a genuine problem worth solving before you go to market.
Where you are personally. This is the one owners discount and it deserves more weight than they give it. Energy is an asset. An owner who is running on empty makes worse decisions during a sale, negotiates worse, and often accepts a weaker deal because they are tired. If you are close to done, selling in eighteen months as a burnt out operator is frequently worse than selling in six as a functioning one.
Where waiting quietly costs you
Waiting is not free, and the costs are easy to miss:
- You keep carrying the risk. Another twelve months is another twelve months of a key customer leaving, a competitor arriving or something going wrong.
- The trend can turn. Selling off a declining year means explaining it, and explanations discount prices.
- Plant keeps ageing. Every year the replacement conversation gets closer to the buyer's side of the table.
- Australia is heading into the largest handover of business ownership in its history. As more owners reach the exit, supply rises and buyers get to be choosier. Early movers sell into demand rather than into a crowd.
The honest test
Ask yourself one question. If I wait two years, what specifically will be different?
If you can name it, and it is structural, waiting is probably right. Owner dependence reduced. Concentration halved. A second year of contracted revenue on the books. Financial records that reconcile without a story attached.
If the answer is "the market might be better" or "I might feel more ready", waiting is not a strategy. It is a delay, and in two years you will be an older owner selling the same business.
What makes the decision easier
You cannot decide this in the abstract. You need to know what the business is worth as it stands today, what a buyer would question, and which of those things are fixable inside your timeframe. That is what a market appraisal gives you, and it is free and confidential and commits you to nothing.
Twelve months to three years from selling is not too early. That is exactly the point at which knowing your position still lets you do something about it.
Common questions
Is it better to sell a business at its peak?
Buyers price the trend as much as the number, so selling into a rising three year trend is generally stronger than selling off a peak that has already turned. A business showing three years of steady improvement reads very differently to a business showing one exceptional year after two flat ones.
How long does it take to prepare a business for sale?
Meaningful preparation usually takes twelve to twenty four months. Reducing owner dependence, spreading customer concentration and building contracted revenue are structural changes and they cannot be done in a quarter. Tidying financial records and documentation can be done faster.
Should I wait for a better market?
Waiting for a market is speculation. Waiting to fix owner dependence, concentration or record keeping is investment. The second one you control, and it tends to move price more than the market cycle does.
Keep reading
All notes on selling a business · All seller guides · What is my business worth?
Check it yourself
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Ask what it is worth
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Thinking about selling?
Thirty minutes, on the phone or in person, at a time that suits you including evenings. You will get a straight read on where the business sits today and what would move the number. It costs nothing, there is no obligation, and nobody finds out you asked.